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Gold Spot

Gold prices held near a two-week high and were set for their biggest weekly gain in more than two months, on renewed signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve may not taper economic support and hike interest rates in the near term. Spot gold was steady at $1,828 per ounce, after having hit its highest since July 15 at $1832.40. Bullion was on track for its biggest weekly gain since May 21, having risen 1.5% so far. The dollar index was steady at a one-month low hit in the previous session, after the U.S. central bank said the job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would pull back on monetary stimulus.

Technical Resistance: 1845/1859

Technical support: 1818/1809

Market headlines:

  • As Fed tiptoes around tapering, investors look to Jackson Hole meeting for clarity
  • Exclusive-BOJ policymaker sees prospects of deeper debate on price goal this year
  • Thailand risks first double-dip recession since 1998 crisis
  • USDMYR traded at 4.2380

Economic data:

  • 30 July 2021 Malaysia time 05:00pm – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY
  • 30 July 2021 Malaysia time 07:30pm – Reserve Bank of India Monetary and Credit Information Review

As Fed tiptoes around tapering, investors look to Jackson Hole meeting for clarity

Investors looking for clear guidelines on when the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its massive bond purchases, with all eyes next on the annual Jackson Hole conference of central bankers in August. The central bank has been buying $120 billion in fixed income assets per month – $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities – to support the economy as it recovers from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and markets have been fixated on when the Fed will start tapering. Powell said in June that there had been initial discussions about when to pull back. As a result, the market will likely now focus heavily on whether the central bank will give further indications at the Jackson Hole conference on Aug. 26-28 of its policy to allow inflation run hotter than normal to make up for periods of low inflation, said Kimball.

Exclusive-BOJ policymaker sees prospects of deeper debate on price goal this year

The Bank of Japan may see conditions fall in place to begin debating a new strategy for hitting its price target around the end of this year, as the economy shakes off the blues from the COVID-19 pandemic. Even so, the central bank can hold off on expanding stimulus unless a shock event derails Japan’s economic recovery, Noguchi, known as a vocal advocate of aggressive monetary easing, said in his first interview since joining the board in April. By keeping interest rates low and flooding markets with cash via asset purchases, the BOJ hopes to prod firms and households into spending more. A pick-up in consumption would allow firms to raise prices and wages, thereby helping prop up inflation.

Thailand risks first double-dip recession since 1998 crisis

Thailand will likely be the worst economic performer in Southeast Asia this year, with economists continuing to slash the country’s growth forecast amid surging Covid-19 infections, mounting political tensions and fading hopes for a tourism revival. Gross domestic product is expected to grow 1.8% this year, according to the latest weighted average of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In the latest sign of pessimism, the Ministry of Finance cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 1.3% from 2.3% in April. With new Covid infections and deaths continually breaking records since the latest surge began in April, some economists are flagging the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of the year — or even a second straight annual contraction, something the country hasn’t suffered since the Asian Financial Crisis more than two decades ago.                          Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC

 

黄金现货

金价保持在两周高位附近,并有望创下两个多月以来的最大单周涨幅,因新迹象表明美联储可能不会在短期内减少经济支持和加息。现货金持稳于每盎司 1,828 美元,此前曾触及 7 月 15 日以来的最高点 1832.40 美元。金价有望创下 5 月 21 日以来的最大单周涨幅,迄今已上涨 1.5%。美元指数持稳于前一交易日触及的一个月低点,此前美联储表示就业市场仍有 “一些理由需要回补”,然后才会撤回货币刺激措施。

技术阻力:1845/1859

技术支持 :1818/1809

主要头条:

  • 随着美联储小心翼翼地缩减规模,投资者期待杰克逊霍尔会议的明确性
  • 日本央行政策制定者认为今年对价格目标进行更深入辩论的前景
  • 泰国面临自 1998 年危机以来首次双底衰退的风险
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.2380

 

经济数据:

  • 2021年7月 30日,马来西亚时间 05:00 pm – 欧盟消费者物价指数(CPI)同比
  • 2021年7月 30日,马来西亚时间 07:30 pm – 印度储备银行货币和信用信息审查

 

随着美联储小心翼翼地缩减规模,投资者期待杰克逊霍尔会议的明确性

投资者正在寻找有关美联储何时开始缩减大规模债券购买的明确指导方针,接下来所有人的目光都集中在 8 月举行的杰克逊霍尔央行行长年度会议上。中央银行每月购买 1200 亿美元的固定收益资产——800 亿美元的国债和 400 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券——以支持经济从冠状病毒大流行的影响中复苏,而市场一直关注何时美联储将开始缩减规模。鲍威尔在 6 月份表示,已经就何时退出进行了初步讨论。因此,市场现在可能会重点关注央行是否会在 8 月 26 日至 28 日的杰克逊霍尔会议上进一步表明其政策,以允许通胀高于正常水平以弥补低通胀时期。

日本央行政策制定者认为今年对价格目标进行更深入辩论的前景

随着经济摆脱 COVID-19 大流行带来的忧郁,日本央行可能会看到条件到位,开始辩论在今年年底左右达到其价格目标的新战略。即便如此,日本央行仍可以推迟扩大刺激计划,除非发生冲击事件破坏日本经济复苏,野口直子在 4 月份加入董事会后的首次采访中表示,他以积极的货币宽松政策而著称。通过保持低利率并通过资产购买向市场注入大量现金,日本央行希望刺激企业和家庭增加支出。消费回升将使企业提高价格和工资,从而有助于支撑通胀。

泰国面临自 1998 年危机以来首次双底衰退的风险

泰国可能是今年东南亚经济表现最差的国家,由于 Covid-19 感染激增、政治紧张局势加剧以及旅游业复苏的希望逐渐消退,经济学家继续下调该国的增长预期。根据彭博调查的 36 位经济学家的最新加权平均数,预计今年国内生产总值将增长 1.8%。最新的悲观迹象是,财政部将 2021 年 GDP 增长预期从 4 月份的 2.3% 下调至 1.3%。自 4 月份最近一次激增开始以来,新的 Covid 感染和死亡人数不断打破记录,一些经济学家警告说,今年下半年可能出现技术性衰退——甚至是连续第二年出现收缩,这是该国从未发生过的自二十多年前亚洲金融危机以来,

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC