Global Market Report - 28 Mar 2022

Gold Spot

Gold was on course to gain for the week as concerns over the war in Ukraine and rising prices boosted its appeal as a safe-haven and an inflation hedge, but prices eased on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields reached new highs. Helped by expectations of monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note firmed near multi-year highs, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.

Technical Resistance: 1987/2000

Technical support: 1930/1920

Market headlines:

Economic data:                

  • 2022 Malaysia time 07:00 pm – Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks   

Wall Street worries that Fed was behind the curve on inflation

Wall Street analysts and investors who believe the U.S. Fed Reserve has acted too slowly to combat high inflation are now forecasting even more aggressive rate hikes as the central bank catches up. It is the latest recalibration among banks and investors since the U.S. central bank last week raised its key lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point and forecast an aggressive path of further increases to counter inflation. That was followed on Monday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying the bank must move expeditiously to cut inflation and that it could use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes if needed.

ECB's Lagarde does not see risk of stagflation

The European Central Bank does not expect the war in Ukraine to push the euro zone into stagflation even if it does push up inflation due to higher energy prices and push down growth, President Christine Lagarde was quoted as saying on Saturday. Lagarde said growth in the euro area could be as low as 2.3% in a severe scenario due to the war in 2022, however in all scenarios inflation is expected to decrease and settle at levels around the bank's 2% target in 2024.

Malaysia's inflation up 2.2% in February 2022

Malaysia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased moderately by 2.2% to 125.2 in February 2022 from 122.5 in the same month of the preceding year, driven mainly by the increase in food inflation, Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) said. “The increase in food inflation, which is the largest contributor to the overall weight of CPI, continued to be a major contributor to the country's inflation. “The 3.7% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages group was largely due to an increase in the component for food at home which increased 4.1% compared to the same month of the preceding year,” he said in a statement, adding that the increase was mainly for raw cooking materials such as chicken (14.2%) and eggs (13.5%).

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

黄金现货

由于对乌克兰战争和价格上涨的担忧增强了其作为避险和通胀对冲工具的吸引力,黄金本周有望上涨,但由于美国国债收益率达到新高,周五价格下跌。受美联储收紧货币政策预期的帮助,美国 10 年期国债收益率坚挺在多年高位附近,增加了持有零收益金条的机会成本。

技术阻力:1987/2000

技术支持 :1930/1920

主要头条:

• 华尔街担心美联储落后于通胀曲线

• 欧洲央行的拉加德没有看到滞胀的风险

• 2022 年 2 月马来西亚通胀率上升 2.2%

• 美元兑马币交易 4.2105

经济数据:

  • 2022年3月28日,马来西亚时间 07:00 pm – 英国央行行长贝利(Andrew Bailey)讲话       

华尔街担心美联储落后于通胀曲线

认为美联储在应对高通胀方面行动过于缓慢的华尔街分析师和投资者现在预测,随着央行迎头赶上,加息幅度会更大。这是自美联储上周将主要贷款利率上调 25 个百分点并预测进一步加息以应对通胀以来,银行和投资者的最新调整。周一美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔随后表示,该银行必须迅速采取行动降低通胀,如果需要,它可以使用比平时更大的加息。

欧洲央行的拉加德没有看到滞胀的风险

周六援引欧洲央行行长拉加德的话说,欧洲央行预计乌克兰战争不会将欧元区推入滞胀,即使它确实因能源价格上涨而推高通胀并压低经济增长。拉加德表示,由于 2022 年的战争,在严重的情况下,欧元区的增长率可能低至 2.3%,但在所有情况下,通胀预计将下降并稳定在 2024 年该银行 2% 的目标附近。

2022 2 月马来西亚通胀率上升 2.2%

马来西亚统计局(DOSM)表示,马来西亚的消费物价指数(CPI)从去年同月的 122.5 小幅上升 2.2% 至 2022 年 2 月的 125.2,主要是受食品通胀上升的推动。 “作为CPI整体权重的最大贡献者,食品通胀的上升仍然是该国通胀的主要贡献者。他在一份声明中说:“食品和非酒精饮料组增长 3.7%,主要是由于家庭食品成分的增加,与去年同期相比增加了 4.1%。”增长主要来自于烹饪原料,例如鸡肉(14.2%)和鸡蛋(13.5%)。资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

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