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Gold Spot

Gold prices were flat, holding near the key psychological level of $1,800 per ounce, as investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting for hints on policy tapering plans. Fed’s policy statement is due at 1800 GMT later in the day followed by a news conference by Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors will look for cues on when the central bank will begin to taper its monetary support.

Technical Resistance: 1811/1823

Technical support: 1793/1783

Market headlines:

  • Consumer Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Rises for Sixth Month
  • IMF raises growth forecasts for rich nations, dims outlook for developing world
  • US copper buyers face world’s highest prices as demand booms
  • USDMYR traded at 4.2330

Economic data:

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Unexpectedly Rises for Sixth Month

U.S. consumer confidence improved for a sixth straight month in July to a fresh pandemic high as Americans grew more optimistic about current business and labor market conditions. The Conference Board’s index rose to 129.1 from a revised 128.9 reading in June, according to the group’s report. The confidence gauge is nearing pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that consumers are growing more upbeat as economic activity resumes. Even so, concerns about rising consumer prices and the delta variant have climbed in recent weeks, which could weigh on sentiment in the coming months. The Conference Board’s gauge of current conditions rose to 160.3, also a fresh pandemic high. The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” increased to a 21-year high. Consumers’ view of present business conditions also improved slightly. Economic expectations were little changed.

IMF raises growth forecasts for rich nations, dims outlook for developing world

The International Monetary Fund maintained its 6% global growth forecast for 2021, upgrading its outlook for the United States and other wealthy economies but cutting estimates for developing countries struggling with surging Covid-19 infections. The divergence is based largely on better access to Covid-19 vaccines and continued fiscal support in advanced economies, while emerging markets face difficulties on both fronts, the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook. “Close to 40% of the population in advanced economies has been fully vaccinated, compared with 11% in emerging market economies, and a tiny fraction in low-income developing countries,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said during a news conference.

US copper buyers face world’s highest prices as demand booms

U.S. copper buyers are paying the world’s highest prices for the metal as soaring demand and logistical bottlenecks send New York futures surging ahead of contracts in London and Shanghai. Copper futures for September delivery on the Comex have been trading at a premium to those for December delivery in a condition called backwardation that suggests tight near-term supplies and rising demand. is the only main exchange where the metal is trading in backwardation right now, and inventories at warehouses tracked by the bourse have been declining since early April. As a result, a New York trader is paying over US$250 a metric ton more for Comex copper than the metal traded on the London Metal Exchange, the widest since 2011. The New York price is also higher than in China, excluding a value-added tax on Shanghai purchases.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC

 

黄金现货

黄金价格持平,保持在每盎司 1,800 美元的关键心理水平附近,因投资者等待美联储会议以寻求政策缩减计划的暗示。美联储的政策声明将于当天晚些时候格林威治标准时间 1800 发布,随后主席杰罗姆鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。投资者将寻找央行何时开始缩减货币支持的线索。

技术阻力:1811/1823

技术支持 :1793/1783

主要头条:

  • 消费者对美国的信心连续六个月意外上升
  • IMF 上调富裕国家的增长预测,使发展中国家的前景黯淡
  • 随着需求旺盛,美国铜买家面临全球最高价格
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.2230

 

经济数据:

  • 2021年7月 28日,马来西亚时间 09:30 am – 澳大利亚消费者物价指数 (CPI) 环比
  • 2021年7月 29日,马来西亚时间 02:00 am – 美联储利率决定

消费者对美国的信心连续六个月意外上升

由于美国人对当前的商业和劳动力市场状况更加乐观,美国消费者信心在 7 月份连续第六个月改善至大流行新高。根据该组织的报告,美国谘商会的指数从 6 月份修正后的 128.9 上升至 129.1。信心指数接近大流行前的水平,表明随着经济活动的恢复,消费者变得更加乐观。即便如此,最近几周对消费者价格上涨和 delta 变体的担忧加剧,这可能会在未来几个月打压市场情绪。会议委员会对当前状况的衡量指标升至 160.3,这也是大流行的新高。表示工作“充足”的消费者比例上升至 21 年来的最高水平。消费者对当前商业状况的看法也略有改善。经济预期几乎没有变化。

IMF 上调富裕国家的增长预测,使发展中国家的前景黯淡

国际货币基金组织维持对 2021 年全球增长 6% 的预测,提升了对美国和其他富裕经济体的展望,但下调了对因 Covid-19 感染激增而苦苦挣扎的发展中国家的估计。国际货币基金组织在其《世界经济展望》的更新中表示,这种分歧主要基于发达经济体更好地获得 Covid-19 疫苗和持续的财政支持,而新兴市场在这两方面都面临困难。 IMF 首席经济学家 Gita Gopinath 在新闻发布会上表示:“发达经济体近 40% 的人口已全面接种疫苗,而新兴市场经济体为 11%,而低收入发展中国家的比例很小。” .

随着需求旺盛,美国铜买家面临全球最高价格

由于需求飙升和物流瓶颈导致纽约期货在伦敦和上海的合约之前飙升,美国铜买家正在为这种金属支付全球最高的价格。 Comex 9 月交割的铜期货一直比 12 月交割的铜期货交易溢价,这种情况称为现货溢价,表明近期供应紧张且需求上升。是目前唯一一个现货黄金交易的主要交易所,自 4 月初以来,该交易所追踪的仓库库存一直在下降。因此,纽约贸易商为 Comex 铜支付的每公吨价格比伦敦金属交易所的铜价高出 250 美元,这是自 2011 年以来的最高水平。纽约价格也高于中国,不包括价值——上海采购的增值税。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC