Global Market Report - 28 Apr 2022

Gold Spot

Gold slipped to a more than two-month through on Wednesday as the dollar rallied on expectations of aggressive monetary policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The dollar index charged to its highest level since January 2017, fuelled by expectations that the U.S. central bank will be more hawkish than peers and safe-haven flows fanned by concerns over slowing growth in China and Europe.

Technical Resistance: 1911/1930

Technical support: 1870/1852

Market headlines:

Economic data:                

  • 2022 Malaysia time 09:30 am - Australia Retail Sales MoM
  • 2022 Malaysia time 05:00 pm - Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks
  • 2022 Malaysia time 08:30 pm - U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ
  • 2022 Malaysia time 08:30 pm - U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Germany would go into recession with Russian energy embargo – minister

The German government's reduced forecast for 2.2% growth this year does not assume a Russian energy embargo or blockade and the economy would tip into recession if either of those transpired, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Wednesday. Habeck's ministry on Wednesday cut its growth forecast for 2022 to 2.2% from 3.6% projected in January as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sanctions and high energy prices take a toll on output. It also raised its 2022 inflation forecast to 6.1%.

Australian inflation hits 20-yr high, May rate rise seen in play

Australian consumer prices surged at the fastest annual pace in two decades last quarter as petrol, home building and food costs all climbed, fueling speculation interest rates could rise from record lows as soon as next week. That would be unwelcome news for Prime Minister Scott Morrison as he fights a tough election where the rising cost of living has become a sore point with voters. The data bolstered a growing view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) no longer needs to keep interest rates at emergency lows of 0.1% and should tighten soon, perhaps even at its next policy meeting on May 3 rather than in June.

Thai finance ministry cuts 2022 GDP outlook over Ukraine war

Thailand's finance ministry on Wednesday reduced its 2022 economic growth forecast to 3.5% from a previous forecast of 4.0%, due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global growth and inflation, a ministry official said. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, however, will still be supported by higher domestic spending and a recovery in tourism, as well as exports, Pornchai Theeravet, head of the ministry's fiscal policy office, told a news conference.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

黄金现货

周三黄金跌至两个多月,因美元因预期美联储将积极收紧货币政策而上涨。美元指数升至 2017 年 1 月以来的最高水平,原因是预期美联储将比同行更加鹰派,以及对中国和欧洲增长放缓的担忧引发的避险资金流。

技术阻力:1911/1930

技术支持 :1870/1852

主要头条:

• 德国将因俄罗斯能源禁运而陷入衰退——部长

• 澳大利亚通胀达到 20 年新高,5 月加息在即

• 泰国财政部因乌克兰战争下调 2022 年 GDP 展望

• 美元兑马币交易 4.3600

经济数据:

  • 2022年4月28日,马来西亚时间 09:30 am – 澳大利亚零售销售月率(%) (月度环比) (三月) 
  • 2022年4月28日,马来西亚时间 05:00 pm – 英国央行行长贝利(Andrew Bailey)讲话
  • 2022年4月28日,马来西亚时间 08:30 pm – 美国实际GDP年化季率 (季度环比) (第一季度) 
  • 2022年4月28日,马来西亚时间 08:30 pm – 美国初请失业金人数 ) 

德国将因俄罗斯能源禁运而陷入衰退——部长

经济部长罗伯特哈贝克周三表示,德国政府下调今年增长 2.2% 的预测并不假设俄罗斯实施能源禁运或封锁,如果其中任何一种发生,经济将陷入衰退。由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、制裁和高能源价格对产出造成影响,哈贝克的经济部周三将 2022 年的增长预测从 1 月份预测的 3.6% 下调至 2.2%。它还将2022年的通胀预期上调至6.1%。

澳大利亚通胀达到 20 年新高,5 月加息在即

由于汽油、房屋建筑和食品成本均攀升,澳大利亚消费者价格在上个季度以二十年来最快的年度速度飙升,这加剧了人们猜测利率最早可能在下周从历史低点回升。对于总理斯科特莫里森来说,这将是一个不受欢迎的消息,因为他正在与一场艰难的选举作斗争,生活成本上升已成为选民的痛点。该数据支持了越来越多的观点,即澳大利亚储备银行 (RBA) 不再需要将利率维持在 0.1% 的紧急低位,并且应该很快收紧,甚至可能在 5 月 3 日而不是 6 月的下次政策会议上收紧。

泰国财政部因乌克兰战争下调 2022 GDP 展望

泰国财政部一名官员表示,由于俄乌战争对全球增长和通胀的影响,泰国财政部周三将其 2022 年经济增长预测从之前的 4.0% 下调至 3.5%。然而,该部财政政策办公室主任Pornchai Theeravet在新闻发布会上表示,东南亚第二大经济体仍将受到国内支出增加、旅游业和出口复苏的支持。资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

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