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Gold Spot

Gold prices inched lower, hovering around the $1,800 per-ounce psychological level, as the U.S. dollar held firm, with investors turning their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting this week. The dollar index held close to a 3-1/2-month peak hit last week, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. While no policy change is expected from the committee’s meeting, investors will look out for clues on when the U.S. central bank might rein in its easy monetary policies.

Technical Resistance: 1810/1825

Technical support: 1790/1781

Market headlines:

  • S. Treasury Secretary Yellen warns Congress on debt limit
  • Russia raises key rate to 6.5% in sharpest move since 2014
  • Indian central bank looking at phased launch of its own digital currency
  • USDMYR traded at 4.2275

 

Economic data:

  • 26 July 2021 Malaysia time 04:00pm – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul)
  • 26 July 2021 Malaysia time 07:00pm – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Vlieghe Speaks

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen warns Congress on debt limit

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged lawmakers to increase or suspend the nation’s debt limit as soon as possible and warned that if Congress does not act by Aug. 2 the Treasury Department would need to take “extraordinary measures” to prevent a U.S. default. In a letter to House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Yellen said that Oct. 1, the first day of the next fiscal year, could be a critical date for the U.S. ability to pay its obligations without debt limit legislation due to large federal outlays scheduled for then. In the letter, also sent to other congressional leaders from both parties, Yellen said U.S. debt would be at the statutory limit on Aug 1, when a two-year suspension is set to expire. Republicans have seized upon the debt limit issue to attack Democrats for pushing legislation that they say has led to inflation and escalating public debt.

Russia raises key rate to 6.5% in sharpest move since 2014

Russia’s central bank increased its key interest rate to 6.5% to curb stubbornly high inflation and indicated that further rate increases were possible even after the 100 basis point hike, its sharpest since late 2014. After slashing rates to a record low of 4.25% amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Russia this year embarked on a monetary tightening cycle to rein in inflation, which is a sensitive issue ahead of September parliamentary election. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, presenting the rate move, said the bank also considered 50 and 75-basis-point hikes but opted for a more aggressive move to pull inflation back to its 4% target. The decision, the fourth rate increase this year, came after annual consumer inflation, the central bank’s main area of responsibility, overshot expectations and accelerated to 6.5% in June, its highest since August 2016 when the key rate was 10.5%.

Indian central bank looking at phased launch of its own digital currency

The Reserve Bank of India is considering a phased introduction of its own central bank digital currency (CBDC), deputy governor T. Rabi Shankar said, and is examining various issues including the underlying technology and issuance method. China leads the space and has already started trials of a digital currency in several cities while the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England are looking into it for a future launch. RBI has been working on the idea of CBDC for years. Virtual currencies (VCs) like bitcoin have gained popularity in India in recent years and unofficial estimates suggest the country has around 15 million investors holding over 100 billion rupees ($1.34 billion) in crypto assets.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC

 

黄金现货

黄金价格小幅走低,徘徊在每盎司 1,800 美元的心理水平附近,因美元坚挺,投资者将注意力转向本周联邦公开市场委员会的会议。美元指数接近上周触及的 3-1/2 个月高位,这使得其他货币持有者的黄金价格更加昂贵。尽管预计委员会会议不会改变政策,但投资者将寻找美联储何时可能控制宽松货币政策的线索。

技术阻力:1810/1825

技术支持 :1790/1781

主要头条:

  • 美国财政部长耶伦就债务上限向国会发出警告
  • 俄罗斯将关键利率上调至5%,这是 2014 年以来的最大举措
  • 印度央行考虑分阶段推出自己的数字货币
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.2275

 

经济数据:

  • 2021年7月 26日,马来西亚时间 04:00 pm – 德国 Ifo 商业景气指数(7 月)
  • 2021年7月 26日,马来西亚时间 07:00 pm – 英格兰银行货币政策委员会 (MPC) 成员 Vlieghe 发言

美国财政部长耶伦就债务上限向国会发出警告

美国财政部长珍妮特耶伦敦促立法者尽快提高或暂停国家债务限额,并警告说,如果国会不在 8 月 2 日之前采取行动,财政部将需要采取“非常措施”来防止美国违约。耶伦在给众议院议长南希佩洛西的一封信中表示,由于计划的巨额联邦支出,10 月 1 日,即下一个财政年度的第一天,可能是美国在没有债务限制立法的情况下偿还债务的关键日期那时。在这封信中,耶伦还寄给了两党其他国会领导人,他说美国债务将在 8 月 1 日达到法定限额,届时两年暂停期将到期。共和党人利用债务限额问题来攻击民主党推动立法,他们认为这导致了通货膨胀和公共债务升级。

俄罗斯将关键利率上调至 6.5%,这是 2014 年以来的最大举措

俄罗斯央行将其关键利率上调至 6.5% 以抑制顽固的高通胀,并表示即使在加息 100 个基点后仍可能进一步加息,这是自 2014 年底以来的最高水平。在 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行之后,俄罗斯今年开始了货币紧缩周期以控制通货膨胀,这是 9 月议会选举之前的一个敏感问题。央行行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜 (Elvira Nabiullina) 在介绍利率变动时表示,该行还考虑加息 50 和 75 个基点,但选择采取更激进的举措将通胀率拉回 4% 的目标。该决定是今年第四次加息,此前央行的主要责任领域年度消费者通胀超出预期并在 6 月加速至 6.5%,为 2016 年 8 月关键利率 10.5% 以来的最高水平。

印度央行考虑分阶段推出自己的数字货币

副行长 T. Rabi Shankar 表示,印度储备银行正在考虑分阶段推出自己的中央银行数字货币 (CBDC),并正在研究各种问题,包括基础技术和发行方法。中国在这个领域处于领先地位,并且已经在几个城市开始了数字货币的试验,而美国联邦储备委员会和英格兰银行正在研究未来的推出。 RBI 多年来一直致力于 CBDC 的想法。近年来,像比特币这样的虚拟货币 (VC) 在印度越来越受欢迎,非官方估计表明该国约有 1500 万投资者持有超过 1000 亿卢比(13.4 亿美元)的加密资产。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC