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Gold Spot

Gold price steadied as stocks and U.S. bond yields pulled back to offset a firmer dollar and restore some of bullion’s allure as a safe haven. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields retreated after hitting a near one-week high and stocks paired initial gains as risk sentiment was curbed by data showing U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly to two-month highs, channelling some inflows to bullion. Gold also took support from a European Central Bank pledge to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer.

Technical Resistance: 1813/1825

Technical support: 1792/1781

Market headlines:

  • US-China trade booms as if virus, tariffs never happened
  • ECB revamps guidance in push to hit higher inflation goal
  • Indonesia central bank holds rates amid growing COVID-19 crisis
  • USDMYR traded at 4.2235

 

Economic data:

  • 23 July 2021 Malaysia time 02:00pm – United Kingdom Retail Sales (Mom)(YoY)(Jun)
  • 23 July 2021 Malaysia time 04:30pm – United Kingdom Composite & Manufacturing & Services PMI

US-China trade booms as if virus, tariffs never happened

China and the US are shipping goods to each other at the briskest pace in years, making the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship look as if the protracted tariff war and pandemic never happened. Eighteen months after the Trump administration signed the trade deal, the agreement has turned out to be a truce at best. The US trade deficit hasn’t shrunk, most levies are still in place, and it hasn’t led to negotiations over other economic issues. Monthly two-way trade, which tumbled to US$19 billion in February of last year amid shutdowns in Chinese factories, rebounded over the past year to new records. And that boom looks set to continue, with China purchasing millions of tons of US farm goods for this year and next and stuck-at-home US consumers still shopping and importing in record amounts.

ECB revamps guidance in push to hit higher inflation goal

The European Central Bank (ECB) has revised its guidance on when interest rates may rise to convince investors it will not withdraw support too hastily and derail the economic recovery. The move is aimed at strengthening the ECB’s long-running efforts to push up inflation, but it also means policymakers will not necessarily react immediately if price growth overshoots their target for a period. The key change to the guidance means that even if inflation is at the target at the end of the ECB’s three-year forecast horizon, officials will not be forced to respond with tighter policy. The ECB currently foresees price growth averaging just 1.4% in 2023, which suggests any rate hike is years away.

Indonesia central bank holds rates amid growing COVID-19 crisis

Indonesia’s central bank held its key interest rate at a record low on Thursday to support the economy amid a growing COVID-19 crisis, but said recent anti-virus measures had hit activity less than expected. Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 3.50%, where it has been since February. The central bank also left its two other main policy rates unchanged. Indonesia has one of the world’s worst coronavirus outbreaks due to a rapid spread of the Delta variant, reporting around 1,000 deaths from the respiratory disease each day in the past week.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC

 

黄金现货

黄金价格持稳,因股市和美国债券收益率回落以抵消美元走强的影响,并恢复了黄金作为避险资产的部分吸引力。指标美国国债收益率在触及近一周高位后回落,股市成对上涨,因数据显示美国初请失业金人数意外上升至两个月高位,部分资金流入黄金,抑制了风险情绪。欧洲央行承诺将利率保持在历史低位的时间更长,黄金也得到了支持。

技术阻力:1813/1825

技术支持 :1792/1781

主要头条:

  • 美中贸易依然繁荣,仿佛病毒与关税从未发生
  • 欧洲央行修订指引以推动实现更高的通胀目标
  • 印尼央行在 COVID-19 危机日益严重的情况下维持利率不变
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.2235

 

经济数据:

  • 2021年7月 23日,马来西亚时间 02:00 pm – 英国零售额(月)(同比)(六月)
  • 2021年7月 23日,马来西亚时间 04:30 pm – 英国综合、制造业和服务业采购经理人指数

美中贸易依然繁荣,仿佛病毒与关税从未发生

中国和美国正以多年来最快的速度相互运送货物,这使得世界上最大的双边贸易关系看起来好像从未发生过旷日持久的关税战和大流行。在特朗普政府签署贸易协议 18 个月后,该协议充其量只是休战。美国的贸易逆差没有缩小,大部分征税仍然存在,也没有导致就其他经济问题进行谈判。由于中国工厂停工,月度双向贸易在去年 2 月跌至 190 亿美元,但在过去一年中反弹至新纪录。而且这种繁荣似乎将继续下去,中国今年和明年购买了数百万吨美国农产品,而呆在家里的美国消费者仍在以创纪录的数量购物和进口。

欧洲央行修订指引以推动实现更高的通胀目标

欧洲中央银行 (ECB) 已修订其关于何时可能升息的指引,以说服投资者不会过快撤回支持并破坏经济复苏。此举旨在加强欧洲央行推高通胀的长期努力,但这也意味着,如果价格增长在一段时间内超过目标,决策者不一定会立即做出反应。该指引的关键变化意味着,即使通胀在欧洲央行三年预测期结束时达到目标,官员也不会被迫采取更紧缩的政策来应对。欧洲央行目前预计 2023 年物价平均增长率仅为 1.4%,这表明任何加息都需要数年时间。

印尼央行在 COVID-19 危机日益严重的情况下维持利率不变

在 COVID-19 危机日益严重的情况下,印度尼西亚央行周四将关键利率维持在历史低位以支持经济,但表示最近的反病毒措施对经济活动的影响低于预期。印尼央行 (BI) 将基准 7 天逆回购利率维持在 3.50%,自 2 月份以来一直保持在这一水平。央行还维持其他两项主要政策利率不变。由于 Delta 变体的迅速传播,印度尼西亚是世界上最严重的冠状病毒爆发之一,据报道,过去一周每天约有 1,000 人死于这种呼吸道疾病。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC