Global Market Report - 18 Apr 2022

Gold Spot

The gold price has had a pretty good week and was trading at $1972/oz on good Friday up 1.37% from last week's open. Economists at HSBC have noted, the near-term momentum for gold remains positive, but the upside looks limited as the Fed’s determination to raise rates, potential weaker non-investment demand and USD strength could curb gold gains. Gold is up on risk and inflation, but downward pressure could be ahead. “Combined inflation and geopolitical risks could send gold higher over the near-term, but gains will be increasingly limited, as US yields look firm and underlying non-investment demand could be eroded by high gold prices.”

Technical Resistance: 2000/2020

Technical support: 1980/1973

Market headlines:

Economic data:                

  • 2022 Malaysia time 10:00 am - China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY
  • 2022 Malaysia time 10:00 am - China Industrial Production YoY

China keeps medium-term policy rate unchanged, but markets expect more easing

China's central bank kept borrowing costs of its medium-term policy loan unchanged for the third straight month as expected on Friday, despite Beijing calling for more monetary stimulus to cushion an economic slowdown. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was keeping the rate on 150 billion yuan ($23.52 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.85% from the previous operation, to "maintain banking system liquidity reasonably ample", according to an online statement.

BOJ likely to raise inflation forecast near 2%, vow to keep easy policy

The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to near 2% at this month's policy meeting as global commodity inflation drives up energy and food costs, said three sources familiar with its thinking. While the upgrade will bring inflation closer to its 2% target, the central bank will stress its resolve to keep monetary policy ultra-loose to underpin a fragile economic recovery, the sources said. In fresh quarterly projections due to be released at the April 27-28 policy meeting, the BOJ will likely lift its core consumer inflation forecast for the current fiscal year through March 2023 to above 1.5% from the present estimate of 1.1%, the sources said.

IMF to downgrade forecast for over 140 economies amid Russia-Ukraine conflict

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief said Thursday that the organisation will revise down its global growth forecast amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the impact of which will contribute to downgrades for 143 economies this year, Xinhua reported. In an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in January, the IMF already cut 2022 global growth forecast by 0.5 percentage point to 4.4% amid Omicron surge, as economies grapple with supply disruptions, higher inflation, record debt and persistent uncertainty.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

黄金现货

黄金价格度过了相当不错的一周,耶稣受难日交易价格为 1972 美元/盎司,较本周开盘价上涨 1.37%。汇丰银行的经济学家指出,黄金的近期动能仍然是积极的,但由于美联储加息的决心、潜在的非投资需求疲软和美元走强可能会抑制黄金上涨,因此上行空间看起来有限。黄金因风险和通胀而上涨,但可能面临下行压力。 “综合通胀和地缘政治风险可能会在短期内推高黄金,但涨幅将越来越有限,因为美国收益率看起来坚挺,潜在的非投资需求可能会被高金价侵蚀。”

技术阻力:2000/2020

技术支持 :1980/1973

主要头条:

• 中国维持中期政策利率不变,但市场预期会进一步宽松

• 日本央行可能将通胀预期上调至近2%,誓言保持宽松政策

• 国际货币基金组织在俄乌冲突中下调 140 多个经济体的预测

• 美元兑马币交易 4.2430

经济数据:

  • 2022年4月18日,马来西亚时间 10:00 am – 中国季度GDP年率(%) (同比) (第一季度)
  • 2022年4月18日,马来西亚时间 10:00 am – 中国规模以上工业增加值年率(%) (同比) (三月)

中国维持中期政策利率不变,但市场预期会进一步宽松

尽管北京呼吁采取更多货币刺激措施以缓冲经济放缓,但中国央行周五如预期的那样连续第三个月保持其中期政策性贷款的借贷成本不变。中国人民银行(PBOC)表示,将向部分金融机构发放的价值人民币 1500 亿元(235.2 亿美元)的一年期中期借贷便利(MLF)贷款利率维持在上次操作的 2.85% 不变,以根据一份在线声明,“保持银行系统流动性合理充裕”。

日本央行可能将通胀预期上调至近2%,誓言保持宽松政策

三位熟悉日本央行想法的消息人士称,由于全球大宗商品通胀推高能源和食品成本,日本央行可能在本月的政策会议上将本财年的通胀预期上调至接近 2%。消息人士称,虽然上调将使通胀率接近 2% 的目标,但央行将强调保持超宽松货币政策以支持脆弱的经济复苏的决心。消息人士称,在将于 4 月 27 日至 28 日政策会议上发布的新季度预测中,日本央行可能会将截至 2023 年 3 月的当前财年的核心消费者通胀预测从目前估计的 1.1% 上调至 1.5% 以上。

国际货币基金组织在俄乌冲突中下调 140 多个经济体的预测

据新华社报道,国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁周四表示,该组织将在俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突期间下调其全球增长预测,其影响将导致今年 143 个经济体的评级下调。在 1 月份发布的《世界经济展望》(WEO) 报告的更新中,国际货币基金组织已经将 2022 年全球增长预测下调了 0.5 个百分点,至 4.4%,原因是经济体正在努力应对供应中断、通胀上升、创纪录的债务和持续的不确定性。资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

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