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Gold prices eased as U.S. Treasury yields gained on hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and markets began to price in a sooner-than-anticipated reduction in balance sheet. Physical gold buying faltered in India last week, as prices climbed and rising coronavirus cases prompted consumers to postpone purchases, while demand in top consumer China stabilised as Lunar New Year festivities approached.
Technical Resistance: 1825/1835
Technical support: 1805/1790
Market headlines:
Asia weighs mixed China data, Brent clears 2021 highs
Asian share markets were choppy on Monday as a slew of Chinese economic data confirmed the deadening effect of coronavirus restrictions on consumer spending, prompting Beijing to again ease monetary policy. A holiday in the United States made for thin trading, but that did not stop Treasury futures from sliding further and Brent crude hitting a three-year top of $86.71 a barrel. Worryingly for the world's second-largest economy, retail sales rose only 1.7% year-on-year in December, missing forecasts for a 3.7% rise. Industrial output did fare better and the economy as a whole grew a little above forecasts at 4.0% in the fourth quarter. China's central bank also surprised by cutting some key lending rates by a sizable 10 basis points.
China cuts policy interest rate for first time since April 2020
China lowered a key interest rate for the first time since the peak of the pandemic in 2020 as a property-market slump and repeated virus outbreaks dampened the nation’s growth outlook. Bonds rallied. The People’s Bank of China cut the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points to 2.85%, while net injecting 200 billion yuan (US$31.5 billion) of medium-term cash into the financial system. That’s the first reduction since April 2020. It also cut the rate on the seven-day reverse repurchase rate. Monday’s move puts China further apart from global central banks such as the Federal Reserve, which are seeking to normalise monetary policies to contain a surge in inflation. It backs up a pledge by policymakers last month that they will act to support the economy after months of deleveraging led to a housing slump.
Tech stocks stumble to worst start since 2016 on rate-hike fears
The stocks of US technology companies are seeing the worst start to a year since 2016 as fears about runaway inflation imperil the heady valuations left by the market’s run-up over the past few years. Following multiple failed attempts this week to rally back strongly, investors remain hesitant to plough heavily back into shares of growth stocks and there’s still no major signs that the pressure on technology companies will abate anytime soon. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which includes some of the nation’s technology behemoths, is down more than 4% this year, even after a bounce late Friday that erased its losses from earlier in the week. The broader Nasdaq Composite Index fell for a third straight week.
Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge
黄金现货
由于美联储发出鹰派信号，美国国债收益率上涨，并且市场开始消化资产负债表的缩减速度快于预期，黄金价格下跌。上周印度的实物黄金购买动摇，因价格攀升且冠状病毒病例增加促使消费者推迟购买，而随着农历新年的临近，主要消费国中国的需求趋于稳定。
技术阻力：1825/1835
技术支持 ：1805/1790
经济数据：
亚洲权衡中国数据喜忧参半，布伦特原油突破 2021 年高位
周一亚洲股市震荡，因为一系列中国经济数据证实了冠状病毒限制对消费者支出的抑制作用，促使北京再次放松货币政策。美国假期导致交易清淡，但这并没有阻止美国国债期货进一步下滑，布伦特原油触及每桶 86.71 美元的三年高点。令世界第二大经济体担忧的是，12 月份零售额同比仅增长 1.7%，低于增长 3.7% 的预期。第四季度工业产出表现较好，整体经济增长略高于预期，为 4.0%。中国央行还对一些关键贷款利率大幅下调 10 个基点感到意外。
中国自2020年4月以来首次下调政策利率
中国自 2020 年疫情高峰以来首次下调关键利率，原因是房地产市场低迷和反复爆发的病毒疫情抑制了中国的增长前景。债券上涨。中国人民银行将其一年期政策性贷款利率下调 10 个基点至 2.85%，同时向金融体系净注入 2000 亿元人民币（315 亿美元）中期现金。这是自 2020 年 4 月以来的首次下调。它还下调了 7 天逆回购利率。周一的举措使中国与美联储等全球央行进一步疏远，后者正寻求使货币政策正常化以遏制通胀飙升。它支持决策者上个月的承诺，即在数月的去杠杆导致房地产市场低迷之后，他们将采取行动支持经济。
由于担心加息，科技股跌至2016年以来最差开局
由于对通胀失控的担忧危及过去几年市场上涨留下的令人兴奋的估值，美国科技公司的股票出现了自 2016 年以来最糟糕的一年开局。在本周多次尝试强势反弹失败后，投资者仍不愿重仓投资成长股，而且仍然没有重大迹象表明科技公司面临的压力将在短期内减轻。包括该国一些科技巨头在内的纳斯达克 100 指数今年下跌了 4% 以上，即使在周五晚些时候出现反弹，抹去了本周早些时候的跌幅。更广泛的纳斯达克综合指数连续第三周下跌。资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge