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Gold Spot

Gold was little changed as a firmer dollar offset support from bets that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to respond with immediate monetary tightening after U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month. Spot gold was steady at $1,806.64 per ounce. The closely watched U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.9% last month, compared with a forecast for a 0.5% uptick. Still, markets will now eye Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress for any hints on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook.

Technical Resistance: 1818/1830

Technical support: 1800/1791

Market headlines:

  • IEA Warns of Much Tighter Oil Market Unless OPEC+ Boosts Supply
  • Dollar hits three-month high to euro on bets for faster Fed tightening
  • In boost to recovery, EU approves investment plans of Italy, France, Spain
  • USDMYR traded at 4.2008

 

Economic data:

  • 14 July 2021 Malaysia time 10:00am – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 14 July 2021 Malaysia time 02:00pm – U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (Jun)
  • 14 July 2021 Malaysia time 10:00pm – Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
  • 15 July 2021 Malaysia time 00:00am – U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testifies

IEA Warns of Much Tighter Oil Market Unless OPEC+ Boosts Supply

Deadlocked by a dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, OPEC+ is set to keep output levels unchanged next month even as fuel consumption bounces back from the pandemic and summer driving demand peaks. The group’s impasse threatens to inflict a “deepening supply deficit,” with “the potential for high fuel prices to stoke inflation and damage a fragile economic recovery,” the IEA said in its monthly report. Brent crude is trading close to a two-year high above $75 a barrel. The oil inventory glut that amassed during the pandemic has cleared, and stocks are now below average levels. Meanwhile, world demand is set to rebound by a vigorous 5.4 million barrels a day this year from the unprecedented slump seen in 2020.

Dollar hits three-month high to euro on bets for faster Fed tightening

The U.S. dollar touched a three-month high versus the euro and a one-week high versus the yen, after heated U.S. inflation spurred bets of faster monetary policy tightening than Federal Reserve officials have so far signaled. The dollar strengthened to $1.17720 per euro, the highest since April 5. It rose to 110.70 yen for the first time since July 7, last trading about flat at 110.66. The greenback also remained just shy of the $0.6918 mark against the New Zealand dollar, for the first time since November. It last traded largely unchanged at $0.6956 ahead of a policy update by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with economists largely expecting no changes.

In boost to recovery, EU approves investment plans of Italy, France, Spain

 

EU finance ministers adopted the investment plans of 12 member states, including those of Italy, Spain and France, paving the way for the first disbursements of EU funds to boost the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The European Commission estimates the 800 billion euro ($948 billion) recovery plan, financed through unprecedented joint borrowing and disbursed in grants and loans, could boost public investment to 3.5% of the bloc’s gross domestic product next year, the highest in more than a decade. Italy and Spain are among the top beneficiaries in absolute terms of the recovery funds.

 

 

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC

 

黄金现货

黄金几乎没有变化,因为美元走强抵消了在美国消费者价格上个月出现 13 年来最大涨幅后美联储不太可能立即收紧货币政策的押注所带来的支撑。现货金持稳于每盎司 1,806.64 美元。备受关注的美国消费者价格指数 (CPI) 上月上涨 0.9%,而预期为上涨 0.5%。尽管如此,市场现在仍将关注美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在国会的证词,以寻找有关美联储货币政策前景的任何暗示。

技术阻力:1818/1830

技术支持 :1800/1791

主要头条:

  • 国际能源署警告称,除非欧佩克+增加供应,否则石油市场将趋紧
  • 因押注美联储加快收紧政策,美元兑欧元触及三个月高位
  • 为促进复苏,欧盟批准意大利、法国、西班牙的投资计划
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.2008

 

经济数据:

  • 2021年7月 14日,马来西亚时间 10:00 am – 新西兰央行利率决定
  • 2021年7月 14日,马来西亚时间 02:00 pm – 英国消费者物价指数(CPI)(同比)(六月)2021年7月 14日,马来西亚时间 10:00 pm – 加拿大银行货币政策报告
  • 2021年7月 15日,马来西亚时间 00:00 am – 美联储主席鲍威尔作证词

 

国际能源署警告称,除非欧佩克+增加供应,否则石油市场将趋紧

由于沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的争端而陷入僵局,即使燃料消耗从大流行和夏季推动需求高峰中反弹,欧佩克+仍将在下个月保持产量水平不变。国际能源署在其月度报告中表示,该组织的僵局有可能造成“不断加深的供应赤字”,“燃料价格高企有可能引发通胀并破坏脆弱的经济复苏”。布伦特原油交易价格接近每桶 75 美元以上的两年高位。大流行期间积累的石油库存过剩已经消除,库存现在低于平均水平。与此同时,今年全球需求将从 2020 年前所未有的低迷中强劲反弹 540 万桶/日。

因押注美联储加快收紧政策,美元兑欧元触及三个月高位

美元兑欧元触及三个月高位,兑日圆触及一周高位,此前美国通胀升温引发押注货币政策紧缩速度快于美联储官员迄今所暗示的速度。美元兑欧元走强至 1.17720 美元,为 4 月 5 日以来最高。自 7 月 7 日以来首次升至 110.70 日元,最后交投于 110.66 美元。美元兑新西兰元也仅略低于 0.6918 美元大关,这是自去年 11 月以来的首次。在新西兰储备银行更新政策之前,它的最后交易价格基本保持不变,为 0.6956 美元,经济学家基本上预计不会发生变化。

为促进复苏,欧盟批准意大利、法国、西班牙的投资计划

欧盟财长通过了包括意大利、西班牙和法国在内的 12 个成员国的投资计划,为欧盟资金的首次支付铺平了道路,以促进经济从 COVID-19 大流行中复苏。欧盟委员会估计,8000 亿欧元(9480 亿美元)的复苏计划通过史无前例的联合借款和赠款和贷款支付,明年可能会将公共投资提高到欧盟国内生产总值的 3.5%,达到十多年来的最高水平。 .从复苏资金的绝对值来看,意大利和西班牙是最大的受益者。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC