Gold steadied as investors awaited U.S. inflation data and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting for clues as to when the central bank would start withdrawing its pandemic stimulus. As inflationary pressures mount worldwide, money markets are charging ahead with pricing aggressive interest rate rises, in most cases betting that policy will be tightened far sooner and at a much faster pace than rate-setters are signalling.
Technical Resistance: 1774/1782
Technical support: 1754/1745
- Stocks and bonds reel under stagflation threat
- UK jobs hit record high as Bank of England weighs up rate hike
- Copper slips as low inventories offset growth fears
- USDMYR traded at 4.1615
- 13 October 2021 Malaysia time 02:00pm – UK GDP (MoM)(YoY)
- 13 October 2021 Malaysia time 02:00pm – UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug)
- 13 October 2021 Malaysia time 08:30pm – US Core CPI (MoM)(YoY)(Sep)
Stocks and bonds reel under stagflation threat
A selloff in global stocks extended into Tuesday on signs that soaring energy prices had put a dampener on economic growth, while inflation and policy-tightening fears sent short-dated US Treasury yields to 18-month highs. Oil prices rose further, with Brent crude at almost US$84 a barrel. Coal has scaled record peaks and, while gas prices are off recent highs, they remain four times higher in Europe than at the start of the year. The impact of supply crunches in power and manufacturing components is showing up in data — on Tuesday, data showed Japanese wholesale inflation hit 13-year highs last month, UK shoppers slashed spending and China recorded a 20% drop in car sales. With the US earnings season kicking off in earnest this week, investors will want to gauge the impact of inflation on companies’ bottom line.
UK jobs hit record high as Bank of England weighs up rate hike
British employers increased their payrolls to a record high in September, shortly before the end of the government’s wage subsidies scheme, potentially encouraging the Bank of England’s progress towards a first post-pandemic interest rate hike. The number of workers on companies’ books rose by the most on record in data going back to 2014, up by 207,000 from August. Employers turned to recruitment agencies to find staff and hotel and food firms created jobs as they recovered from COVID-19 lockdowns. The BoE is gearing up to become the first major central bank to raise rates since the coronavirus crisis struck. Inflation is heading towards 4% or higher — above its 2% target.
Copper slips as low inventories offset growth fears
Copper eased as concerns over the impact of higher power prices on global growth spooked investors, although losses were capped by low inventories in exchange warehouse which pointed to solid demand. Investors this week fretted over the economic impact of soaring energy prices and the prospects of faster than expected interest rate rises to combat inflation. Exchange warehouse stocks climbed but remained at low levels. Weekly copper inventories data for warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a rise for the first time in eight weeks, increasing by 15% to 50,062 tonnes but still hovering around 2009 lows. In LME-registered warehouses, on-warrant stocks rose 3.7% to 85,875 tonnes, near their lowest since May.
Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters
- 美元兑马币交易RM 4.1615
- 2021年10月 13日，马来西亚时间 02:00 pm – 英国 GDP (MoM)(YoY)
- 2021年10月 13日，马来西亚时间 02:00 pm – 英国制造业生产 (MoM)（八月）
- 2021年10月 13日，马来西亚时间 08:30 pm – 美国核心 CPI (MoM)(YoY)(Sep)
由于有迹象表明能源价格飙升抑制了经济增长，而通胀和政策收紧的担忧将短期美国国债收益率推高至 18 个月高位，全球股市的抛售延续至周二。油价进一步上涨，布伦特原油价格接近每桶 84 美元。煤炭价格创下历史新高，虽然天然气价格已脱离近期高位，但欧洲的价格仍比年初高出四倍。电力和制造零部件供应紧缩的影响正在数据中显现——周二，数据显示日本批发通胀上月触及 13 年高位，英国购物者削减支出，中国汽车销量下降 20%。随着本周美国财报季正式拉开帷幕，投资者将希望衡量通胀对公司利润的影响。
在政府工资补贴计划即将结束前不久，英国雇主在 9 月份将就业人数增加至历史新高，这可能会鼓励英格兰银行在大流行后首次加息方面取得进展。从 2014 年开始的数据中可以看出，公司账簿上的员工人数增长最快，比 8 月份增加了 207,000 人。雇主转向招聘机构寻找员工，酒店和食品公司在从 COVID-19 封锁中恢复后创造了就业机会。英国央行正准备成为自冠状病毒危机爆发以来第一个加息的主要央行。通货膨胀率正朝着 4% 或更高的方向发展——高于其 2% 的目标。
由于对电价上涨对全球经济增长的影响的担忧令投资者感到恐慌，铜价有所回落，尽管交易所仓库的低库存限制了跌幅，这表明需求强劲。本周，投资者对能源价格飙升对经济的影响以及加息速度快于预期以对抗通胀的前景感到担忧。交易所仓库库存攀升但仍处于低位。上海期货交易所监测的每周仓库铜库存数据显示，八周来首次增加，增加 15% 至 50,062 吨，但仍徘徊在 2009 年的低点附近。在 LME 注册的仓库中，权证库存增加 3.7% 至 85,875 吨，接近 5 月以来的最低水平。
资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge Markets