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Gold Spot

Gold eased in step with a stronger dollar as investors cautiously looked forward to U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s timeline for easing its bond purchases. The dollar index rose 0.1% against its rivals, raising gold’s cost for holders of other currencies. Investors will focus on a U.S. consumer price index report on Tuesday, and Powell’s testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday for cues on the timeline for policy tightening.

Technical Resistance: 1818/1830

Technical support: 1800/1791

Market headlines:

  • Russian central bank says inflationary pressure remains high, but is easing
  • After U.S. push, EU pauses tax plan, but Ireland sticks to its guns
  • Ratio cut gives China room to deal with Fed policy shifts – ex-PBOC official
  • USDMYR traded at 4.1905

 

Economic data:

  • 13 July 2021 Malaysia time 09:30am – National Australia Bank Business Confidence
  • 13 July 2021 Malaysia time 11:00am – China Trade Balance (USD) (Jun)
  • 13 July 2021 Malaysia time 06:00pm – EU Finance Ministers Meeting
  • 13 July 2021 Malaysia time 08:30pm – U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM
  • 14 July 2021 Malaysia time 02:00am – U.S. Federal Budget Balance (Jun)

Russian central bank says inflationary pressure remains high, but is easing

Inflationary pressure remains high in Russia, the central bank said in a report, but there are signs that some pressure is easing, and annual inflation will start to fall in the autumn. In June, annual inflation accelerated to 6.5%, its fastest rate since August 2016, providing Russia with a strong argument to raise rates at its next rate-setting meeting on July 23 and adding to concerns that tighter monetary policy might hamper economic growth. The central bank said inflation would return to the 4% target in the second half of 2022 and remain near that level in the future.

After U.S. push, EU pauses tax plan, but Ireland sticks to its guns

The European Union has agreed to delay a corporate tax plan for the bloc following pressure from the U.S. administration and in a bid to facilitate a broader global tax deal, but EU member Ireland reiterated its criticisms of the wider reform. The world’s 20 largest economies endorsed a plan for a global overhaul of corporate tax that would introduce a minimum tax rate and change the way large companies like Amazon and Google are taxed, based partly on where they sell their products and services rather than on the location of their headquarters. The reform, if finalized in October, would need parliamentary approval in the more than 130 countries that support it, including the U.S. Congress where it could face opposition from the Republicans. All EU member states must also approve tax reforms – including the envisioned global deal.

Ratio cut gives China room to deal with Fed policy shifts – ex-PBOC official

 

China’s cut to bank reserve requirements could help authorities to deal with shifts in U.S. monetary policy and may relieve future downward pressure on the yuan, a former Chinese central bank official said in a commentary. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 50 basis points (bps), effective from July 15, in a move that will release around 1 trillion yuan ($154.44 billion) in long-term liquidity. China’s economic recovery remained insufficient and imbalanced, noting pressure on small and medium-sized banks alongside local government debt risks.

 

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC

 

黄金现货

由于投资者谨慎期待可能影响美联储放松债券购买时间表的美国通胀数据,黄金随美元走强而走软。美元指数兑其竞争对手上涨 0.1%,提高了其他货币持有者的黄金成本。投资者将关注周二公布的美国消费者价格指数报告,以及鲍威尔周三和周四在国会的证词,以了解政策紧缩时间表的线索。

技术阻力:1818/1830

技术支持 :1800/1791

主要头条:

  • 俄罗斯央行称通胀压力仍然很高,但正在缓解
  • 在美国推动后,欧盟暂停税收计划,但爱尔兰坚持自己的立场
  • 降息让中国有空间应对美联储的政策转变
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.1905

 

经济数据:

  • 2021年7月 13日,马来西亚时间 09:30 am – 澳大利亚国民银行商业信心
  • 2021年7月 13日,马来西亚时间 11:00 am – 中国贸易差额(美元)(六月)
  • 2021年7月 13日,马来西亚时间 06:00 pm – 欧盟财长会议
  • 2021年7月 13日,马来西亚时间 08:30 pm – 美国核心消费者物价指数 (CPI) 环比
  • 2021年7月 13日,马来西亚时间 02:00 am – 美国联邦预算余额(六月)

 

俄罗斯央行称通胀压力仍然很高,但正在缓解

俄罗斯央行在一份报告中表示,俄罗斯通胀压力仍然很大,但有迹象表明压力有所缓解,年度通胀将在秋季开始下降。 6 月,年通胀率加速至 6.5%,为 2016 年 8 月以来的最快速度,为俄罗斯在 7 月 23 日的下一次利率制定会议上加息提供了强有力的理由,并加剧了对货币政策收紧可能会阻碍经济增长的担忧。央行表示,通胀将在 2022 年下半年回到 4% 的目标,并在未来保持在该水平附近。

在美国推动后,欧盟暂停税收计划,但爱尔兰坚持自己的立场

欧盟已同意在美国政府的压力下推迟欧盟的企业税收计划,以促进更广泛的全球税收协议,但欧盟成员国爱尔兰重申其对更广泛改革的批评。全球 20 个最大的经济体批准了一项全球公司税改革计划,该计划将引入最低税率并改变亚马逊和谷歌等大公司的征税方式,部分取决于他们销售产品和服务的地点,而不是地点他们的总部。这项改革如果在 10 月完成,需要得到 130 多个支持它的国家的议会批准,包括美国国会,在那里它可能面临共和党的反对。所有欧盟成员国还必须批准税收改革——包括设想中的全球协议。

降息让中国有空间应对美联储的政策转变

中国下调银行存款准备金率可能有助于当局应对美国货币政策的变化,并可能缓解人民币未来的下行压力。中国人民银行(PBOC)表示,将从 7 月 15 日起将所有银行的存款准备金率(RRR)下调 50 个基点(bps),此举将释放约 1 万亿元人民币(1,544.4 亿美元)在长期流动性方面。中国经济复苏仍不充分、不平衡,中小银行压力加大,地方政府债务风险凸显。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, CNBC