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Gold Spot

Gold prices edged lower, weighed by a rallying dollar on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would not put off stimulus tapering, although stagflation expectations limited losses in inflation-hedge bullion. Support for gold “could be coming from some people thinking we have some stagflation at the moment, which is when gold is at its best, as inflation goes higher,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

Technical Resistance: 1763/1774

Technical support: 1745/1738

Market headlines:

  • Poor countries’ debt rose 12% to record $860 bln in 2020 — World Bank
  • China’s bond markets slump again as new Evergrande deadline passes
  • Japan’s wholesale inflation spikes, squeezing corporate profits
  • USDMYR traded at 4.1725

Economic data:

  • 12 October 2021 Malaysia time 02:00pm – UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug)
  • 12 October 2021 Malaysia time 05:00pm – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
  • 12 October 2021 Malaysia time 10:00pm – UK JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)

Poor countries’ debt rose 12% to record $860 bln in 2020 — World Bank

The debt burden of the world’s low-income countries rose 12% to a record US$860 billion in 2020 as countries responded to the COVID-19 crisis with massive fiscal, monetary, and financial stimulus packages, the World Bank said in a report released Monday. World Bank President David Malpass said the report showed a dramatic increase in the debt vulnerabilities facing low- and middle-income countries and called for urgent steps to help countries reach more sustainable debt levels. The report said the external debt stocks of low- and middle-income countries combined rose 5.3% in 2020 to US$8.7 trillion, affecting countries in all regions. It said the rise in external debt outpaced gross national income (GNI) and export growth, with the external debt-to-GNI ratio, excluding China, rising five percentage points to 42% in 2020, while their debt-to-export ratio surged to 154% in 2020 from 126% in 2019.

China’s bond markets slump again as new Evergrande deadline passes

Chinese property firms’ bonds were hit with another wrecking ball on Monday as Evergrande looked set to miss its third round of bond payments in as many weeks and rival Modern Land became the latest scrambling to delay deadlines. High-yield Chinese bond markets were being routed once again as fears about fast-spreading contagion in the US$5 trillion sector, which drives a sizable chunk of the Chinese economy, continued to savage sentiment. Some of China Evergrande Group’s offshore bondholders had not received interest payment by a Monday deadline Asia time, two people familiar with the matter said. Once China’s largest developer, the firm has more than US$300 billion in liabilities that are now at risk. Other signs of stress included smaller rival Modern Land asking investors to push back by three months a US$250 million bond payment due on Oct. 25 in part “to avoid any potential payment default.”

Japan’s wholesale inflation spikes, squeezing corporate profits

Japan’s wholesale prices surged 6.3% in September from a year earlier as raw material costs continued to rise, data showed on Tuesday, a sign that global commodity inflation is squeezing the bottom line for corporates. The rise in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, exceeded a median market forecast for a 5.9% gain and accelerated from a revised 5.8% increase in August. Domestic final goods prices, which loosely track the consumer price index, rose 1.8% from a year earlier. Japan’s economy is gradually recovering thanks to robust external demand, but rising input costs, supply constraints and weak consumption have clouded the outlook.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

 

黄金现货

尽管滞胀预期限制了对冲通胀的金条的跌幅,但因押注美国联邦储备委员会 (美联储/FED) 不会推迟缩减刺激措施而导致美元上涨,令金价小幅走低。芝加哥 Blue Line Futures 首席市场策略师 Phillip Streible 表示,对黄金的支撑“可能来自一些人认为我们目前存在一些滞胀,这是黄金处于最佳状态的时候,因为通胀走高。

技术阻力:1763/1774

技术支持 :1745/1738

主要头条:

  • 贫穷国家的债务在 2020 年增长 12%,达到创纪录的 8600 亿美元 — 世界银行
  • 随着恒大新的截止日期过去,中国债券市场再次暴跌
  • 日本批发通胀飙升,挤压企业利润
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.1725

经济数据:

  • 2021年10月 12日,马来西亚时间 02:00 pm – 英国平均收益指数 + 奖金(8 月)
  • 2021年10月 12日,马来西亚时间 05:00 pm – 德国 ZEW 经济景气度(10 月)
  • 2021年10月 12日,马来西亚时间 10:00 pm – 英国 JOLT 职位空缺(八月)

贫穷国家的债务在 2020 年增长 12%,达到创纪录的 8600 亿美元 世界银行

世界银行在周一发布的一份报告中表示,随着各国以大规模财政、货币和金融刺激计划应对 COVID-19 危机,世界低收入国家的债务负担在 2020 年增加了 12%,达到创纪录的 8600 亿美元.世界银行行长戴维马尔帕斯表示,该报告显示低收入和中等收入国家面临的债务脆弱性急剧增加,并呼吁采取紧急措施帮助各国达到更可持续的债务水平。报告称,2020年低收入和中等收入国家的外债存量合计增长5.3%至8.7万亿美元,影响到所有地区的国家。报告称,外债增速超过国民总收入和出口增速,2020年不包括中国在内的外债占国民总收入的比例上升5个百分点至42%,而债务对出口的比例则飙升从 2019 年的 126% 增加到 2020 年的 154%。

随着恒大新的截止日期过去,中国债券市场再次暴跌

周一,中国房地产公司的债券再次遭受重创,因为恒大似乎将错过数周内的第三轮债券支付,而竞争对手摩登置地成为最新一个争相推迟最后期限的公司。由于对推动中国经济相当大一部分的 5 万亿美元行业的快速蔓延的担忧继续肆虐,高收益的中国债券市场再次受到影响。两名知情人士称,中国恒大集团的部分境外债券持有人在亚洲时间周一截止日期前尚未收到利息支付。该公司曾经是中国最大的开发商,现在面临风险的负债超过 3000 亿美元。其他压力迹象包括规模较小的竞争对手 Modern Land 要求投资者将 10 月 25 日到期的 2.5 亿美元债券付款推迟三个月,部分是“以避免任何潜在的付款违约”。

日本批发通胀飙升,挤压企业利润

周二公布的数据显示,由于原材料成本持续上涨,日本 9 月份的批发价格较上年同期飙升 6.3%,这表明全球商品通胀正在挤压企业的底线。衡量公司相互收取商品和服务价格的企业商品价格指数 (CGPI) 的上涨超过了市场预期的 5.9% 的涨幅,并从 8 月份修正后的 5.8% 的涨幅加速。国内最终产品价格较上年同期上涨 1.8%。得益于强劲的外部需求,日本经济正在逐步复苏,但投入成本上升、供应紧张和消费疲软给前景蒙上了阴影。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge Markets