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Gold Spot

Gold prices were flat as the bullion was caught between a dip in the dollar and fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve would start paring stimulus this year despite weak jobs data. The dollar index inched down 0.1%. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched its highest level since early June on Friday.

Technical Resistance: 1770/1786

Technical support: 1750/1741

Market headlines:

  • Fitch Solutions revises 2021 global growth forecast from 5.7% to 5.6%
  • Markets could face sharp correction, Bank of England warns
  • Indian rupee hits five-and-a-half-month low on central bank decision
  • USDMYR traded at 4.1665

Economic data:

  • 11 October 2021 Malaysia time 08:00pm – UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) GDP Estimate

Fitch Solutions revises 2021 global growth forecast from 5.7% to 5.6%

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has revised its 2021 global growth forecast from 5.7% to 5.6%, reflecting a further weakening of economic momentum across developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs). The research house said despite a more pessimistic view generally, it has revised up growth projections for the eurozone (from 4.6% to 4.9%) – owing to stronger expected growth in France (5.2% to 5.9%) and Ireland (6.5% to 11.4%) – Argentina (6.2% to 6.5%) and Colombia (6.2% to 6.6%). However, downward revisions in Asia (most notably China) and MENA have more than offset these upward adjustments. “We cut our 2021 growth forecast for China by 0.7 percentage points to 7.8% to reflect a plethora of intensifying headwinds,” it said. Fitch Solutions said these include, negative growth spill-overs from Evergrande’s financial difficulties, further outbreaks of Covid-19, Beijing’s regulatory campaign and pursuit of ‘common prosperity’ and power shortages.

Markets could face sharp correction, Bank of England warns

Stock and bond markets could correct sharply if investors reassess the prospects for the economy’s recovery from Covid-19 and there are signs of increased risk-taking at investment banks, the Bank of England said on Friday. The BoE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) said in a statement after its October meeting that there was still evidence of elevated risk-taking in a number of financial markets such as shares, bonds and leveraged loans, relative to historic levels. Stock indexes have hit record highs in recent months as investors bet on a strong recovery after the pandemic, but more recently inflation has become a worry and growth has become patchier in the face of supply side bottlenecks. Households in Britain and beyond are facing an additional squeeze on their spending power from a surge in energy prices at a time when government support, introduced to households and business when the pandemic began, is being phased out.

Indian rupee hits five-and-a-half-month low on central bank decision

The Indian rupee hit its lowest in five-and-a-half months on Friday, while stocks firmed, after its central bank left key rates unchanged and reiterated the need to unwind pandemic-era stimulus only gradually to aid a nascent economic recovery. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates steady at a record low, as expected, and said accommodative monetary policy was needed due to an uneven economic recovery from pandemic-related shutdowns. The RBI’s dovishness dashed expectations of investors hoping it would hint at moving towards policy normalisation like some global central banks, with the rupee shedding 0.4% to hit its lowest since late-April. The currency is also under pressure due to spiking crude prices, having declined nearly 2% over the past two weeks.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

 

黄金现货

黄金价格持平,因黄金陷入美元下跌和尽管就业数据疲软但美联储今年将开始削减刺激措施的担忧之间。美元指数微跌 0.1%。基准美国 10 年期国债收益率周五触及 6 月初以来的最高水平。尽管随着美国最新的 COVID-19 病例激增并开始消退,上个月就业增长急剧放缓,但美联储可能会在下个月开始减少对经济的支持。

技术阻力:1770/1786

技术支持 :1750/1741

主要头条:

  • 惠誉解决方案将 2021 年全球增长预测从7% 上调至 5.6%
  • 英国央行警告称,市场可能面临急剧调整
  • 印度卢比因央行决定触及五个半月低点
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.1665

经济数据:

  • 2021年10月 11日,马来西亚时间 08:00 pm – 英国国家经济和社会研究所 (NIESR) GDP 估计

惠誉解决方案将 2021 年全球增长预测从 5.7% 上调至 5.6%

惠誉解决方案国家风险与行业研究已将其 2021 年全球增长预测从 5.7% 修改为 5.6%,反映出发达市场 (DM) 和新兴市场 (EM) 的经济势头进一步减弱。该研究机构表示,尽管普遍看法较为悲观,但由于法国(5.2% 至 5.9%)和爱尔兰(6.5% 至 11.4 %) – 阿根廷(6.2% 至 6.5%)和哥伦比亚(6.2% 至 6.6%)。然而,亚洲(最显着的是中国)和 MENA 的向下修正远远抵消了这些向上调整。它表示:“我们将中国 2021 年的增长预测下调了 0.7 个百分点至 7.8%,以反映诸多加剧的不利因素。”惠誉解决方案表示,其中包括恒大财务困难造成的负增长溢出效应、Covid-19 的进一步爆发、北京的监管运动以及追求“共同繁荣”和电力短缺。

英格兰银行警告市场可能面临急剧调整

英格兰银行周五表示,如果投资者重新评估经济从 Covid-19 复苏的前景,并且有迹象表明投资银行的风险承担增加,股票和债券市场可能会大幅回调。英国央行金融政策委员会(FPC)在其 10 月会议后的一份声明中表示,仍有证据表明股票、债券和杠杆贷款等多个金融市场的风险承担程度高于历史水平。近几个月来,由于投资者押注大流行后会强劲复苏,股指创下历史新高,但最近通胀已成为一种担忧,面对供应方面的瓶颈,增长变得更加不稳定。在大流行开始时向家庭和企业提供的政府支持正在逐步取消之际,英国及其他地区的家庭正面临能源价格飙升对他们的消费能力的进一步挤压。

印度卢比因央行决定跌至五个半月低点

印度卢比周五触及五个半月以来的最低点,而股市走强,此前印度央行维持关键利率不变,并重申需要逐步解除大流行时期的刺激措施,以帮助刚刚起步的经济复苏。正如预期的那样,印度储备银行 (RBI) 将利率维持在历史低位,并表示由于与大流行相关的停工导致经济复苏不均衡,因此需要采取宽松的货币政策。印度储备银行的鸽派态度打破了投资者的预期,他们希望它会暗示像一些全球央行一样向政策正常化迈进,卢比下跌 0.4%,触及 4 月底以来的最低点。由于原油价格飙升,该货币也面临压力,过去两周下跌了近 2%。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge Markets