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Gold Spot

Gold prices inched lower as a firmer dollar and rise in U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the precious metal’s appeal, with investors focused on U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later this week. While the dollar held close to its highs for the year, denting gold’s appeal for those holding other currencies, the benchmark 10-year yield ticked higher. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Tuesday he continues to believe supply bottlenecks are driving most of the recent increase in inflation and will subside. He also repeated that the central bank is close to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases.

Technical Resistance: 1770/1786

Technical support: 1747/1737

Market headlines:

  • IMF sees global GDP in 2021 slightly below prior forecast of 6%
  • Malaysia CPO futures hit RM5,000 a tonne for the first time
  • Singapore’s GST hike to go ahead as planned
  • USDMYR traded at 4.1820

Economic data:

  • 06 October 2021 Malaysia time 04:30pm – UK Construction PMI (Sep)
  • 06 October 2021 Malaysia time 08:15pm – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)

IMF sees global GDP in 2021 slightly below prior forecast of 6%

The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth in 2021 to fall slightly below its July forecast of 6%, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday, citing risks associated with debt, inflation and divergent economic trends in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Georgieva said the global economy was bouncing back, but the pandemic continued to limit the recovery, with the main obstacle posed by the “Great Vaccination Divide” that has seen too many countries with too little access to COVID vaccines. In a virtual speech at Bocconi University in Italy, Georgieva said next week’s updated World Economic Outlook would forecast advanced economies’ returning to pre-pandemic levels of economic output by 2022, but most emerging and developing countries needing “many more years” to recover.

Malaysia CPO futures hit RM5,000 a tonne for the first time

Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil (CPO) futures price rose to RM5,000 a tonne for the first time on Tuesday after the commodity traded up as much as RM162 before paring gains at the bourse’s afternoon break. As at Tuesday’s close, CPO for October 2021 settled at RM4,975 a tonne after being traded between RM4,850 and RM5,000. In a note a day earlier, CGS-CIMB Securities head of Malaysia research and regional head of agribusiness Ivy Ng Lee Fang said that the average CPO price was up year-on-year (y-o-y) amid concerns over tight edible oil supplies, and that palm oil exports could remain strong in October due to the Diwali festival.

Singapore’s GST hike to go ahead as planned

The government’s plan to raise goods and services tax (GST) rate as early as next year has not changed, said finance minister Lawrence Wong in Parliament earlier today. The GST rate hikes were first announced by Wong’s predecessor Heng Swee Keat in his Budget 2018 speech. The rate will be increased from 7% now to 9% between 2022 and 2025 – before the current government’s term is up. Seen by economists as a regressive tax, GST was introduced by Singapore back in 1994 at 3% and has been raised three times since. Over the years, the government has introduced various offset and support measures for low income families to cope with higher GST.

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters

 

黄金现货

黄金价格小幅走低,因美元走强和美国国债收益率上升打压贵金属的吸引力,投资者关注本周晚些时候将公布的美国非农就业数据。虽然美元接近年内高位,削弱了黄金对持有其他货币的人的吸引力,但指标 10 年期国债收益率小幅走高。芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·埃文斯 (Charles Evans) 周二表示,他仍然认为供应瓶颈是近期通胀上升的主要推动因素,并将消退。他还重申,央行即将开始减少每月的资产购买。

技术阻力:1770/1786

技术支持 :1747/1737

主要头条:

  • IMF 预计 2021 年全球 GDP 略低于先前预测的 6%
  • 马来西亚原棕油期货首次触及每吨 5,000 令吉
  • 新加坡的商品及服务税上调按计划进行
  • 美元兑马币交易RM 4.1820

经济数据:

  • 2021年10月 06日,马来西亚时间 04:30 pm – 英国建筑业采购经理人指数(9 月)
  • 2021年10月 06日,马来西亚时间 08:15 pm – 美国 ADP 非农就业变化(9 月)

IMF 预计 2021 年全球 GDP 略低于先前预测的 6%

国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃 (Kristalina Georgieva) 周二表示,国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 预计 2021 年全球经济增长将略低于其 7 月预测的 6%,理由是与债务、通胀和 COVID-19 大流行之后的不同经济趋势相关的风险。格奥尔基耶娃表示,全球经济正在反弹,但大流行继续限制复苏,主要障碍是“疫苗接种大鸿沟”,导致太多国家获得 COVID 疫苗的机会太少。乔治耶娃在意大利博科尼大学的一次虚拟演讲中表示,下周更新的《世界经济展望》将预测发达经济体到 2022 年将恢复到大流行前的经济产出水平,但大多数新兴和发展中国家需要“更多年”才能恢复。

马来西亚原棕油期货首次触及每吨 5,000 令吉

大马交易所原棕油 (CPO) 期货价格周二首次升至每吨 5,000 令吉,此前该商品一度上涨 162 令吉,随后在午盘交易时段回吐涨幅。截至周二收盘,2021 年 10 月的原棕油在 4,850 至 5,000 令吉之间交易后收于每吨 4,975 令吉。在一天前的一份报告中,CGS-CIMB Securities 马来西亚研究主管兼农业综合企业区域主管 Ivy Ng Lee Fang 表示,由于对食用油供应紧张的担忧,平均原棕油价格同比上涨,并且由于排灯节,10 月棕榈油出口可能保持强劲。

新加坡的商品及服务税上调按计划进行

财政部长黄循财今天早些时候在议会表示,政府最早在明年提高商品和服务税 (GST) 税率的计划没有改变。消费税上调是由黄的前任恒瑞杰在其 2018 年预算演讲中首次宣布的。在现任政府任期结束之前,该税率将从现在的 7% 增加到 2022 年至 2025 年之间的 9%。被经济学家视为累退税的商品及服务税于 1994 年由新加坡引入,税率为 3%,此后已提高了 3 次。多年来,政府为低收入家庭推出了各种抵消和支持措施,以应对更高的商品及服务税。

资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge Markets