Gold prices eased amid curbs to contain the spread of Omicron coronavirus cases, while a rise in U.S. Treasury yields supported by inflation fears kept safe-haven bullion's gains in check. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a more than one-month high in the previous session, with investors believing the Fed could raise rates in March soon after it completes tapering of its bond purchases. Money markets have fully priced in a first U.S. rate increase by May, and two more by the end of 2022.
Technical Resistance: 1817/1827
Technical support: 1796/1786
S&P 500, Dow hit record highs on 1st trading day of 2022
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted closing record highs on the first trading day of the year on Monday, helped by gains in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc and bank shares. All of Wall Street's main indexes ended 2021 with monthly, quarterly and annual gains, recording their biggest three-year advance since 1999. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 246.76 points, or 0.68%, to 36,585.06; the S&P 500 gained 30.38 points, or 0.64%, at 4,796.56; and the Nasdaq Composite added 187.83 points, or 1.2%, at 15,832.80. Energy and financial sectors were among top gainers, with bank shares rising along with U.S. Treasury yields as investors braced for what could be an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year despite the recent jump in COVID-19 cases.
Dollar hits one-month high vs yen as Fed rate bets lift U.S. yields
The U.S. dollar reached its strongest level in more than a month against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, lifted by a jump in Treasury yields overnight as traders bet on an early Federal Reserve interest rate hike despite surging COVID-19 cases. The greenback rose as high as 115.395 yen for the first time since Nov. 25, as long-term Treasury yields leapt 12.5 basis points overnight to touch 1.6420% for the first time since Nov. 24. Money markets have fully priced in a first U.S. rate increase by May, and two more by the end of 2022. The dollar index, which measures the currency against the yen and five other major peers, held close to the one-week high of 96.328 reached on Monday.
Oil Rallies Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting to Discuss Output Policy
Oil jumped more than 1% on the first trading day of the new year ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on Tuesday to discuss production policy. Futures in New York topped $76 a barrel after toggling between gains and losses earlier. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its estimate of the surplus in global oil markets this quarter, a day before the group and its allies consider another output boost. The 23-nation alliance is on track to ratify another modest output revival of 400,000 barrels a day in February, delegates said. Libya’s crude output is expected to fall to the lowest in more than a year as workers try to fix a damaged pipeline. The outage comes less than two weeks after militia shuttered Sharara, the country’s biggest oil field. At the same time, petroleum consumption is holding up well despite the spread of the omicron variant of Covid-19.
Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge
在遏制 Omicron 冠状病毒病例传播的限制下，黄金价格下跌，而在通胀担忧的支持下美国国债收益率上升，抑制了避险黄金的涨势。基准 10 年期美国国债收益率在前一交易日升至一个多月以来的高位，投资者认为美联储可能会在完成缩减购债计划后不久在 3 月份加息。货币市场已经完全消化了美国在 5 月之前的首次加息，以及到 2022 年底的两次加息。
标普 500、道指在 2022 年第一个交易日创下历史新高
周一，标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯工业平均指数在今年首个交易日创下收盘纪录高位，这得益于特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）公司和银行股的上涨。华尔街所有主要指数在 2021 年结束时均录得月度、季度和年度涨幅，创下 1999 年以来的最大三年涨幅。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 246.76 点，或 0.68%，至 36,585.06；标准普尔 500 指数上涨 30.38 点，或 0.64%，至 4,796.56；纳斯达克综合指数上涨 187.83 点，或 1.2%，收于 15,832.80。能源和金融板块涨幅居前，银行股与美国国债收益率一起上涨，因为尽管最近 COVID-19 病例激增，但投资者仍为美联储今年可能比预期更早的加息做好准备。
美元兑日圆触及 1 个月高位，因美联储加息押注推高美国收益率
美元兑日元汇率在周二达到一个多月以来的最高水平，这受到美国国债收益率隔夜上涨的提振，因为尽管 COVID-19 病例激增，但交易员押注美联储将提前加息。美元自 11 月 25 日以来首次升至 115.395 日圆，因长期国债收益率隔夜跃升 12.5 个基点，自 11 月 24 日以来首次触及 1.6420%。货币市场已全面消化美国首个到 5 月加息，到 2022 年底再加息两次。衡量货币兑日元和其他五个主要货币的美元指数接近周一触及的一周高点 96.328。
在周二欧佩克+会议讨论生产政策之前，油价在新年的第一个交易日上涨了 1% 以上。纽约期货在早些时候涨跌之间徘徊后突破了每桶 76 美元。石油输出国组织本季度下调了对全球石油市场盈余的估计，在该组织及其盟国考虑再次增加产量的前一天。代表们表示，这个由 23 个国家组成的联盟有望在 2 月份批准另一次温和的每天 40 万桶的产量恢复。由于工人试图修复损坏的管道，利比亚的原油产量预计将降至一年多以来的最低水平。在民兵关闭该国最大的油田沙拉拉后不到两周，停电就发生了。与此同时，尽管 Covid-19 的 omicron 变体已经普及，但石油消耗量保持良好。资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge