Gold prices eased by a firmer dollar, as investors assessed how central banks are likely to respond to surging inflation and concerns over economic growth spurred by the new Omicron coronavirus variant. The dollar index held firm and rebounded 0.4% from the previous session’s low, increasing gold’s cost to buyers holding other currencies. The latest COVID-19 variant could extend some of the supply-chain challenges and shortages that have led to higher inflation, and officials will need to factor that in as they decide how to withdraw their monetary policy support, New York Fed President John Williams said.
Technical Resistance: 1804/1815
Technical support: 1770/1760
OECD says inflation is main risk to economic outlook
The main risk to an otherwise upbeat global economic outlook is that the current inflation spike proves longer and rises further than currently expected, the OECD said on Wednesday. Global growth is set to hit 5.6% this year before moderating to 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest economic outlook. That was little changed from a previous forecast of 5.7% for 2021, while the forecast for 2022 was unchanged. The OECD did not produce estimates for 2023 until now. With the global economy rebounding strongly, companies are struggling to meet a post-pandemic snap-back in customer demand, causing inflation to shoot up worldwide as bottlenecks have emerged in global supply chains.
UK headed for best growth in G-7 this year and next
Britain is headed for the fastest growth in the Group of Seven major economies this year and next but will suffer a setback if supply shortages are allowed to worsen, the OECD said. A lack of workers to fill open jobs and persistent disruptions in the flow of goods across borders could force companies to reduce output, damaging the pace of recovery in the economy, the Paris-based researcher concluded in a report on Wednesday. The findings highlight risks from the pandemic and Britain’s departure from the European Union, which have added friction at the border that’s disrupting the flow of goods and workers. The forecasts show that by 2023, the year before the deadline for the next election, growth is likely to moderate sharply while inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
China's November factory activity slipped back into contraction — Caixin PMI
China's factory activity fell back into contraction in November as subdued demand, shrinking employment and elevated prices weighed on manufacturers, a business survey showed on Wednesday (Dec 1). The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 in November from 50.6 the month before, versus analyst expectations of 50.5 in a Reuters poll. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The world's second-largest economy, which staged an impressive rebound from last year's pandemic slump, has lost momentum since the second half as it grapples with a slowing manufacturing sector, debt problems in the property market and Covid-19 outbreaks.
Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge
黄金价格因美元走强而下跌，因为投资者评估央行可能如何应对通胀飙升以及对新的 Omicron 冠状病毒变种刺激的经济增长的担忧。美元指数坚挺并从前一交易日的低点反弹 0.4%，增加了持有其他货币的买家的黄金成本。纽约联储主席约翰威廉姆斯表示，最新的 COVID-19 变体可能会扩大导致通胀上升的一些供应链挑战和短缺，官员们在决定如何撤回货币政策支持时需要考虑到这一点.
经合组织周三表示，否则乐观的全球经济前景面临的主要风险是，当前的通胀飙升时间比目前预期的持续时间更长，而且上升幅度更大。经济合作与发展组织在其最新的经济展望中表示，今年全球经济增长将达到 5.6%，然后在 2022 年和 2023 年放缓至 4.5% 和 3.2%。这与之前对 2021 年 5.7% 的预测几乎没有变化，而对 2022 年的预测没有变化。经合组织直到现在才对 2023 年做出估计。随着全球经济强劲反弹，企业正在努力应对大流行后客户需求的反弹，由于全球供应链出现瓶颈，导致全球通胀飙升。
英国在今年和明年在 G-7 中实现最佳增长
经合组织表示，英国将在今年和明年成为七国集团主要经济体中最快的增长，但如果允许供应短缺恶化，英国将遭受挫折。这位常驻巴黎的研究人员在周三的一份报告中得出结论，缺乏工人来填补空缺职位以及跨境货物流动的持续中断可能会迫使企业减少产量，从而损害经济复苏的步伐。调查结果突出了大流行和英国退出欧盟的风险，这增加了边境的摩擦，扰乱了货物和工人的流动。预测显示，到 2023 年，即下一次选举截止日期的前一年，增长可能会急剧放缓，而通胀率仍高于英格兰银行 2% 的目标。
中国 11 月工厂活动重回收缩——财新采购经理人指数
周三（12 月 1 日）的一项商业调查显示，由于需求疲软、就业萎缩和价格上涨给制造商带来压力，中国的工厂活动在 11 月回落至收缩状态。财新/Markit 制造业采购经理人指数 (PMI) 从前一个月的 50.6 降至 11 月的 49.9，而路透调查的分析师预期为 50.5。 50 标记按月将增长与收缩分开。这个世界第二大经济体从去年的大流行衰退中出现了令人印象深刻的反弹，但自下半年以来由于制造业放缓、房地产市场债务问题和 Covid-19 爆发而失去动力。资料来源: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Reuters, The Edge